The year 2023 was characterised by macroeconomic volatility, primarily due to escalating interest rates and inflation, coupled with heightened global geopolitical tension resulting in increased protectionism. These macro–economic trends have impacted the Norwegian M&A and IPO markets, which continued in the trend from 2022, with lower levels of M&A and IPO activity after the record activity levels in the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.

Transaction volumes in the Norwegian M&A and IPO markets have seen a slight decrease from 2022, while deal values have experienced a marginal increase. Nonetheless, the projected interest rates and inflation for 2024 and 2025 present a positive outlook. This forecast provides both encouraging signs of and reasons for cautious optimism regarding a potential resurgence in market activity in 2024.

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Key take-aways

The sectors with the largest representation in Norwegian deals in 2023 were Technology (127) followed by Industries & Chemicals (90), with the highest deal values being in Technology (EUR 5bn) and Energy (EUR 6.65bn).
Public takeover activity saw a significant surge in 2023, with an 80% increase in bids compared to 2022.
Private Equity/Venture Capital maintains a strong presence in Norway, with a robust deal count in 2023.
Cross-border deal activity in Norway remained stable in 2023, with Sweden, the US and the UK retaining their positions as Norway’s strongest investment partners.
New legislative changes in Norway and the EU, such as taxes on natural resources and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regulations, have introduced new considerations for market participants.
The number of IPOs completed on Oslo Børs in 2023 remained consistent with 2022 levels, with two IPOs completed. Additionally, one IPO was completed on Euronext Expand in 2023. However, there was a significant decline in listings on Euronext Growth Oslo, with only four listings in 2023, compared to 15 listings in 2022.
Capital increases in connection with listings on Oslo Børs’ marketplaces were carried out by five companies which largely operate in established sectors in Norway, such as oil and gas, energy, and industrials.
Looking forward to 2024, the potential easing of inflation and prospective interest rate cuts could attract investors back to IPOs, thereby enhancing liquidity and improving return outlooks. However, the current geopolitical instability could undermine conf The activity level in 2024 will largely depend on improvements in the macroeconomic landscape, as companies are eagerly anticipating more favourable market conditions to expand IPO opportunities.

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