Mid-year update 2024: M&A and IPO trends and insights in Norway

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Wiersholm's Corporate team have taken a closer look at how M&A transactions and IPOs are faring in Norway in the first half of 2024.

In our latest and 15^th edition of the Wiersholm M&A and IPO trend report, we explore the Norwegian transaction landscape and M&A and IPO prospects for the period ahead. The transactional year of 2023 was slow due to uncertainty in many areas, heavily influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, capital access and valuations.

The first half of 2024 has shown positive trends with an uptick in deal volumes within M&A, which hopefully means that someone has turned up the heat. The demand side is increasing, with investors jumping off the fence. The supply of companies with high quality assets for sale is increasing. At the same time, price expectations for sellers and buyers appear to be more aligned than in the recent past.

Uncertainty will likely continue to dominate the M&A activity levels and may be further fueled by geopolitical instability, results of upcoming elections and continued high inflation and interest levels. We remain optimistic that investors have become accustomed to these uncertainties and that the current positive trend in the M&A levels will continue throughout the remainder of 2024.

The Norwegian IPO market remains on hold, with very few IPOs coming to market and equally few IPO processes being initiated, and thus expected to come to market in the next six months. The lack of successful IPOs and a relatively poor performance in the secondary market appear to have had an adverse effect on anchor investors’ appetite for IPOs across Northern Europe. This, combined with upcoming fall elections, is a likely “chill-pill” for owners and issuers planning for IPOs with no hurry to exit. The IPO market is not expected to improve until 2025 (or later).

Read the full report here.

In brief:

Recovery in deal volumes from second half of 2023, with an 18% increase, indicating a more confident M&A market ahead.
Well-capitalized corporates are seeking strategic transactions but may be muted by high inflation and interest rates.
Private Equity with deal willingness caused by large dry powder holdings and a large stock of companies ready to exit.
Structured auctions are dominating the M&A market, which is a shift from the bilateral focus seen in recent years.
Public takeover activity is stable and is expected to continue at current levels.
Regulatory complexity has become an increasingly important factor for deal structures and timelines, caused by a combination of new legislative focus and increasing protectionism.
IPOs are on the low side of historical numbers and may potentially also cool down further after the Jordanes IPO being pulled earlier in the second quarter.
There is an increasing appetite towards the US, with issuers either adding a US listing to its existing Norwegian listing or moving its Norwegian listing to the US.